The World Bank has forecasted a 3.6 percentage point rise in poverty levels in Nigeria by 2027, indicating a worsening of the poverty situation over the next five years.
This projection is part of the Africa’s Pulse report, unveiled during the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank in Washington, DC.
The report paints a concerning picture for poverty alleviation in Nigeria, pointing out that despite some progress in economic activity, particularly in the non-oil sector towards the end of 2024, persistent issues related to the country’s dependency on natural resources and its underlying structural fragility will likely hinder substantial progress.
The World Bank pointed out that, like other resource-dependent and fragile nations in Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria’s poverty rate is projected to rise, while non-resource-based countries are expected to experience quicker poverty reduction.
“Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries—including large economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo—is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report stated.
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The report also noted that Sub-Saharan Africa will remain the region with the highest rate of extreme poverty worldwide, with 80% of the globe’s 695 million extreme poor residing in the region. Furthermore, half of this group is concentrated in just four countries.
In comparison, regions such as South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean account for much smaller proportions of the global extreme poverty.
The World Bank’s analysis suggests that resource-dependent countries like Nigeria are expected to face challenges in reducing poverty due to factors such as declining oil prices and weak fiscal systems.
On the other hand, non-resource-rich countries are seeing stronger growth due to high agricultural commodity prices, despite facing fiscal difficulties.
The report observed: “This follows a well-established pattern whereby resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates—averaging 46% in 2024, which is 13 percentage points higher than in non-fragile, resource-rich countries.”
In light of these projections, the World Bank has recommended that Nigeria and similar nations prioritise improving fiscal management and developing a stronger fiscal contract with citizens to support inclusive economic growth and long-term poverty reduction.