The International Monetary Fund has revised Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2025, raising it from 3.0 per cent to 3.4 per cent.
This upward revision of 0.4 percentage points was announced in the IMF’s July 2025 edition of the World Economic Outlook (WEO).
The Fund also increased its forecast for 2026, projecting a growth rate of 3.2 per cent, up from 2.7 per cent forecast in April.
Globally, the IMF expects economic growth to reach 3.0 per cent in 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026, representing slight increases of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from its previous forecast.
The WEO also reflects improved optimism for sub-Saharan Africa, with growth forecasts revised to 4.0 per cent for 2025 and 4.3 per cent for 2026. These represent marginal increases from 3.8 and 4.2 per cent projected in April.
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“Growth is expected to be relatively stable in 2025 in sub-Saharan Africa at 4.0 per cent, before picking up to 4.3 per cent in 2026,” the IMF stated.
Reacting to Nigeria’s new projection, Tunde Abidoye, Head of Equity Research at FBNQuest Merchant Bank, said the IMF’s numbers align with the firm’s internal projections based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
“The IMF’s forecast of 3.4% is precisely in line with our in-house view based on the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, NBS data points,” Abidoye said.
He added, “I believe the upward revision likely reflects improved oil production and the strong performance of services.
“That said, the range-bound single-digit growth rate forecast still portends cautious optimism, as the growth is still too modest to tackle the poverty problem.”