Former Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, has raised alarm over Nigeria’s economic future, citing a study that predicts a financial meltdown by 2026 if drastic action is not taken.
On Friday, August 1, El-Rufai shared an article titled “Nigeria 2026: The Year All Hell Breaks Loose” via his official X handle.
The report, written by economist Dr. Nnaoke Ufere, employs machine learning and economic modelling to warn of a looming economic disaster.
According to the analysis, there is a 75 percent chance that Nigeria could fall into a severe debt crisis by September 2026, leading to a default on international loans, a collapse of the naira, and a breakdown of the banking system.
El-Rufai urged Nigerians to circulate the article, especially among lawmakers at both state and national levels, stating it was time to take urgent steps.
The report warns that Nigeria’s credit rating could drop to junk status, prompting creditors to demand immediate repayment and shutting the country out of global financial markets.
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It further notes that institutions like the IMF and World Bank may be too slow to intervene, leaving Nigeria unable to respond to a fast-unravelling economic crisis.
Government income could also take a hit, the report says, particularly if oil shipments, Nigeria’s main revenue source, are intercepted by foreign creditors.
This scenario, it added, could leave states unable to pay workers or deliver essential services.
In a desperate attempt to stay afloat, the report claims the Central Bank of Nigeria may resort to printing money excessively, risking hyperinflation and widespread poverty.
It also foresees a breakdown in critical sectors including food, fuel, medicine, public infrastructure and policing, resulting in deepening insecurity and nationwide unrest.
“This is not speculation or alarmism,” the report cautioned. “It is a clear and present danger based on rigorous analysis and robust scenario simulations.”