With the death of Pope Francis at 88, the Catholic Church has entered a formal period of mourning, triggering the centuries-old process of electing a new Pontiff.
The conclave, an exclusive gathering of cardinal electors under the age of 80, will be convened within 15 to 20 days at the Vatican to choose his successor.
Only 120 out of over 220 cardinals are eligible to vote, and among them are 18 from Africa.
These electors hail from Algeria, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Ivory Coast (2), Kenya, Madagascar, Morocco, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, South Sudan, and Tanzania.
The term “conclave” comes from the Latin cum clave, meaning “with key,” referring to the secrecy of the election.
Once assembled in the Sistine Chapel, the cardinals will be locked in and disconnected from the outside world, no phones, media, or communication allowed. Surveillance sweeps for bugs are routine, and the oath of secrecy is strictly enforced.
Two-thirds of the voting cardinals were appointed by Pope Francis himself, reflecting his inclusive vision for the Church. Still, the outcome remains unpredictable, with cardinals often shifting allegiances during successive ballots.
The outcome remains unpredictable. As seen in 2013, when Jorge Mario Bergoglio became Pope Francis, the papal conclave is notoriously difficult to forecast. Nevertheless, several names are already emerging as frontrunners:
Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70):
The Vatican Secretary of State since 2013, Parolin is seen as a diplomatic moderate and a likely continuity candidate. His critics see him as too focused on diplomacy, while his supporters view him as a man of peace.
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Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67):
Once viewed as Francis’s favourite, Tagle could become the first Asian pope. His progressive stance on divorce and LGBTQ+ inclusion contrasts with his firm opposition to abortion rights.
Peter Turkson (Ghana, 76):
A leading African voice in the Church, Turkson champions climate justice and poverty alleviation. While he remains rooted in traditional doctrine, his more compassionate approach to LGBTQ+ issues in Africa has drawn global attention.
Péter Erdő (Hungary, 72):
A staunch conservative, Erdő represents a more traditionalist wing of the Church and has aligned with Hungary’s nationalist leadership, opposing Francis’s migrant-welcoming agenda.
Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69):
A progressive ally of Francis, Zuppi is known for his work on peace and humanitarian issues. He recently acted as Vatican peace envoy in the Ukraine conflict.
José Tolentino Calaca de Mendonça (Portugal, 59):
Seen as a rising star, his inclusive views on feminism and same-sex relationships are both a strength and a point of contention within the Church hierarchy.
Mario Grech (Malta, 68):
Once a conservative voice, Grech’s evolution towards progressive thinking since Francis’s papacy has earned him praise for adaptability.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy, 60):
As Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Pizzaballa advocates for Christian minorities and reflects Francis’s compassion-driven leadership.
Robert Sarah (Guinea, 79):
One of the oldest eligible candidates, Sarah is a vocal traditionalist known for his firm stance on clerical celibacy. He has previously been seen as a counterforce to Francis’s reforms.
The conclave, held beneath Michelangelo’s iconic ceiling, may last hours or several days depending on consensus.
The outcome will not just determine the next leader of over a billion Catholics, it may shape the Church’s trajectory on doctrine, diplomacy, and social justice for decades to come.