Most Nigerians say they intend to vote in the 2027 general elections, but insecurity and low confidence in electoral institutions could significantly depress actual turnout, Yiaga Africa has warned.
In a new national survey released on Tuesday, the civic group found that 77 percent of Nigerians say they are “likely” or “very likely” to vote in 2027.
However, the same poll shows that fear of violence is a major deterrent.
“The challenge for 2027 is ensuring that the 77 percent who want to vote can actually do so safely and with confidence in the process,” Yiaga Africa said in a statement.
According to the survey, 42 percent of respondents cited fear of violence as the biggest barrier to voting.
The poll, conducted between December 1 and 5, 2025, is part of Yiaga Africa’s national voter intention series, designed to “test prevailing assumptions about voter interest and participation, while identifying the key drivers and barriers to citizen engagement ahead of the 2027 elections”.
It was based on interviews with 1,500 adult Nigerians across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, with a 95 percent confidence level and a margin of error of ±4.26 percent.
It was commissioned by Yiaga Africa and implemented by NOI Polls, with support from the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).
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Yiaga noted that the North recorded the highest likelihood to vote but also faces some of the worst security challenges, including insurgency, banditry and communal clashes.
The survey suggests voting behaviour is shifting away from party‑line loyalty towards performance and personal impact. Security (21 percent) and the quality of candidates (21 percent) were the top factors shaping voting intentions, followed by economic conditions (17 percent).
“The fact that Nigerians increasingly vote for candidates rather than parties imposes an obligation on political parties to conduct the 2027 nomination process with transparency, integrity, and without manipulation or excessive commercialization,” the report stated.
On trust in the electoral system, Yiaga Africa found a mixed picture.
While 76 percent of respondents believe their vote can make a difference, only 45 percent expressed confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), compared with 34 percent who said they have no confidence. Distrust in INEC was highest in the South‑South and South‑East.
The survey also revealed a major information gap: 67 percent of Nigerians said they were unaware of recent electoral reforms, despite efforts by INEC and the National Assembly to amend laws and improve processes.
“Among those aware of electoral reforms, 64 per cent report increased voting confidence, which indicates that electoral reforms deliver results. However, these reforms are undermined by significant communication failures,” Yiaga said.
The organisation urged security agencies, INEC, the legislature, political parties, civil society and the media to act quickly to tackle insecurity, rebuild trust and enhance voter education ahead of 2027, warning that high intent to vote will mean little if Nigerians do not feel safe or believe the process will be fair.