The World Bank has revised downward Nigeria’s economic growth outlook, projecting the country’s economy will expand by 4.1 percent in 2026.
The new forecast represents a drop from the 4.4 percent growth earlier projected in October 2025 for both 2026 and 2027.
In its latest April 2026 Africa Economic Update titled “Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa,” the global lender also adjusted Nigeria’s growth projection for 2027 to 4.2 percent, while estimating a slight rise to 4.3 percent in 2028.
According to the report, Nigeria’s growth will be supported by relatively stable macroeconomic conditions and a gradual rebound in investment.
The bank identified the services sector — particularly information and communications technology (ICT), finance, and real estate — as the primary driver of expansion in the coming years.
However, growth in agriculture and industry is expected to remain subdued due to persistent structural challenges.
The World Bank also projected a steady decline in inflation, which is expected to fall from 23 percent in 2025 to 14.9 percent in 2026, before easing further to 10.7 percent by 2028.
This trend, it said, reflects the delayed effects of monetary tightening and improvements in supply conditions.
Despite the anticipated moderation in inflation, the bank warned that poverty levels in Nigeria will remain high, although a gradual decline is expected.
It noted that rising fuel prices, partly driven by tensions in the Middle East, could slow the pace of improvement.
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The report further highlighted that higher global oil prices may strengthen Nigeria’s fiscal position and external balances, although gains could be undermined by capital flow volatility and global economic uncertainty.
It also cautioned that investor confidence and reform efforts may face setbacks due to fluctuating commodity prices, tighter international financial conditions, ongoing security concerns, and policy uncertainty ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Beyond Nigeria, the World Bank said economic growth across sub-Saharan Africa is projected to average 4.1 percent in 2026, unchanged from 2025 but slightly lower than earlier forecasts.
Several major economies in the region — including Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zambia — also saw downward revisions to their growth projections, reflecting broader economic headwinds.
While improved macroeconomic stability, stronger currencies, and easing food and fuel prices have supported economic activity across the region, the bank warned that rising global risks — particularly the escalating Middle East conflict — could disrupt progress by driving up energy costs, affecting trade flows, and reigniting inflationary pressures.
Overall, the World Bank said growth in 2026 will be largely driven by private consumption and investment, with the services sector expected to account for nearly half of total economic expansion.