The All Progressives Congress has maintained its lead in the latest electoral projection ahead of the 2027 presidential election, despite losing Rivers State to the Nigeria Democratic Congress.
The October electoral map, released by political intelligence group Politico.ng, projected the ruling party to secure 19 states, while the NDC increased its projected tally to 10 states.
The assessment, presented to journalists on Friday by the group’s leader, Lai Omotola, showed the African Democratic Congress losing ground, with its projected states declining from nine in September to eight in October.
Omotola explained that the monthly exercise was designed to monitor the changing political fortunes of parties and should not be interpreted as a definitive prediction of the 2027 election outcome.
According to him, the October assessment reflects political developments recorded during September and illustrates what the electoral landscape could look like if the election were conducted during the period under review.
Explaining the changes, he said the APC dropped from 20 projected states in September to 19 in October after losing Rivers State, although it gained Adamawa State from the ADC.
The NDC, meanwhile, recorded an increase of two states, moving from eight in the previous assessment to 10 in the latest projection.
Omotola attributed the shifts to political activities, campaign mobilisation and controversies involving prominent political figures and opposition parties.
Among the developments considered was the reported denial of access to Benue State to the NDC presidential candidate, Peter Obi, an incident that generated public debate over opposition campaign activities.
He also identified President Bola Tinubu’s working vacation and the controversy surrounding his absence from the country as factors examined in the group’s assessment.
The continued criticism of the Federal Government’s economic policies by former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, particularly his position on fuel subsidy, was also included in the political developments monitored.
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On party mobilisation, Omotola said the APC recorded the highest level of nationwide campaign activity during the period, followed by the NDC.
He noted, however, that the NDC had yet to establish its presidential campaign council, while the ADC had constituted its campaign council but was yet to commence what the group described as major nationwide campaigns.
The projection also highlighted disagreements involving Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, and APC governors as developments capable of shaping political alignments ahead of the polls.
Despite the figures, Omotola reiterated that the electoral map was based on the assumption of a free and fair election and should not be regarded as the final verdict on the 2027 presidential contest.
He said the monthly assessment was intended to help political parties identify their areas of strength and weakness as preparations for the election intensify.
Under the October projection, the APC is placed at 19 states, the NDC at 10, while the ADC is projected to control eight states.
The Independent National Electoral Commission has fixed February 20, 2027, for the presidential and National Assembly elections.