Former Chief of Staff to ex-President Muhammadu Buhari, Prof. Ibrahim Gambari, has cast doubt on the All Progressives Congress’s ability to maintain long-term dominance, pointing to the failures of previous parties that attempted to rule indefinitely.
Speaking with journalists in Abuja on Wednesday, January 21, Gambari referenced the Northern People’s Congress, National Party of Nigeria, and People’s Democratic Party as examples of parties that believed they would rule forever but ultimately collapsed.
The founder and chairman of the Savannah Centre for Diplomacy, Democracy and Development said history has repeatedly shown that attempts to create dominant-party rule in Nigeria always fail.
“I am not at all worried about this country becoming a one-party state. It will not happen, if history is any guide. We don’t even know our own history.
“This administration is not the first to try to have a dominant party in Nigeria. Right from the beginning, the NPC was a dominant party in the First Republic.
“They didn’t discourage the main opposition; in fact, they took sides. Where has that led us? It didn’t lead to peace or development; it led to chaos,” he said.
Gambari recalled how the NPN in the Second Republic became overconfident about its hold on power, only to be overthrown in a military coup in 1983.
“The NPN became so confident they felt they would rule forever. What happened? It didn’t work. PDP, not long ago, boasted they would rule for 60 years. Where are they today?
“So any effort to make this country one-party will not succeed. Often, it will fail for the wrong reasons, because political elites are too ambitious to be contained within one party. It will break,” he said.
The former diplomat said ambitious political elites in Nigeria have consistently proven too difficult to contain within a single party structure, leading to inevitable breakdowns.
He argued that Nigeria’s real democratic threat comes not from the possibility of one-party rule but from the weakness of political parties themselves, which he said lack ideology, internal democracy, and genuine citizen engagement.
READ ALSO: Every Govt Has Cabal, Even Buhari’s Administration — Ex-CoS Gambari
“Strong political parties make a one-party state impossible. But because we have no organised parties, our parties have become just vehicles to gain political power. Political parties are often just flags of convenience. Weak parties, not a one-party state, are the threat to Nigeria’s democracy.”
Gambari urged Nigerians to learn from historical patterns before waiting for another crisis to occur.
“But let’s not wait for disaster to happen. Let’s build political parties. That’s what has been missing. We have not paid enough attention as a people to political parties. How many of us here actually belong to a political party?
“How many attend meetings? That is the problem. In the First Republic, party members had cards, paid dues, and consulted on candidates. There was a bond between leaders and parties at various levels.”
He contrasted the First Republic’s strong party structures with today’s situation, where politicians switch parties without consequences.
“In the First Republic, crossing from NPC to NCNC or Action Group was significant. Today, one can be APC in the morning, PDP in the afternoon, and APC again the next day with no consequences.
“In other systems, if you switch after being elected under one platform, your seat is declared vacant and you must contest again. Otherwise, you live under false pretences.”
Gambari challenged Nigerians to stop complaining about their leaders whilst neglecting to build strong political institutions.
“How long are we going to keep complaining about the people who rule us when the parties represent nobody and no ideology? Multiparty democracy requires commitment and organisation, and we all have roles to play.”
His comments come amid concerns over mass defections to the APC, with several PDP governors recently switching to the ruling party.
These include Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom, Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta, Peter Mbah of Enugu, Douye Diri of Bayelsa, Agbu Kefas of Taraba, and Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers.
President Bola Tinubu and APC leaders have repeatedly denied any intention to establish a one-party state in Nigeria.