The past week in Nigeria revealed an unsettling truth: political alliances are shifting, party loyalties are weakening, and the state’s capacity to protect its citizens remains under serious question.
In a scathing rebuke, former Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai declared President Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid a lost cause, citing disillusionment with the APC. Meanwhile, the birth of a new political coalition, the All Democratic Alliance, signals a break from the traditional opposition model.
On the security front, the country continues to bleed. In Plateau, suspected herdsmen killed 13 villagers, mostly children and the elderly, burning homes and forcing mass displacements.
Benue is also reeling, after another wave of killings triggered public outrage and forced President Tinubu to confront his security chiefs over their inaction. Calls for state policing have grown louder.
Tensions also flared within the APC itself. At a North-East stakeholders’ meeting, an attempt to endorse Tinubu turned chaotic after Vice President Shettima was sidelined, exposing intra-party fault lines.
Human rights activist Omoyele Sowore further stoked political discontent by alleging that all major opposition parties are under APC influence, labelling them fraudulent and compromised.
Each of these developments, though distinct, paints a composite picture of a country caught between political decay and a desperate search for renewal.
1. Tinubu Can’t Win 2027, El-Rufai Declares
Nasir El-Rufai stated that Tinubu’s re-election is “impossible,” arguing Nigerians are fed up with the APC and its economic failures. He described recent defections to the party as self-serving and predicted a coalition of opposition forces would defeat the president.
Why it Matters:
El-Rufai’s defection from a staunch Tinubu ally to a vocal critic is not merely political theatre. It signals a significant realignment of power ahead of 2027. His alliance with other opposition figures could energise disenfranchised voters and reshape Nigeria’s electoral map. Yet whether this new opposition coalition offers true reform or merely recycles familiar names remains to be seen.
2. 13 Killed in Plateau as Herdsmen Attack Villages
Thirteen people, mostly defenceless civilians, were killed in night raids on two Plateau communities. Over 20 houses were torched, and hundreds were displaced in the latest round of violence by suspected herdsmen.
Why it Matters:
These attacks are part of a growing pattern of unchecked violence in Nigeria’s Middle Belt, revealing a state struggling to protect its citizens. These attacks are persistent, systemic, and politically consequential. They deepen ethno-religious tensions and erode faith in government. The government’s sluggish response undermines national unity and fuels separatist rhetoric in an already fragile country.
3. Tinubu Scolds Police Over Benue Killings
President Tinubu, visiting Makurdi, publicly rebuked the Inspector-General of Police for failing to arrest those behind the recent Benue killings. Over 100 lives were lost, yet no suspects have been apprehended.
Why it Matters:
Tinubu’s public rebuke may appear decisive but is performative unless backed by reform. The real issue isn’t arresting culprits after the fact, it’s the inability of federal security structures to prevent such killings in the first place. The governor’s push for state police reflects a growing consensus that the current model is unfit for local realities. For many, the president’s outrage comes too late, after too many have died.
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4. Sowore: APC Controls All Opposition Parties
Omoyele Sowore claimed that most opposition parties are APC proxies, designed to manipulate electoral and judicial outcomes. He accused them of lacking ideological integrity and serving as legal decoys. Sowore positioned his AAC as the only genuine opposition platform in a landscape of compromised alternatives.
Why it Matters:
Sowore’s claim, though provocative, resonates with a segment of Nigerians disillusioned by the revolving-door nature of elite politics. In a system where politicians frequently switch allegiances for personal gain, ideological opposition is rare. If true, this manipulation undermines electoral credibility and narrows the space for meaningful democratic choice. Voters end up choosing between faces of the same coin.
5. APC Endorsement Turns Chaotic Over Shettima Snub
Summary:
An APC North-East summit to endorse Tinubu’s second term turned rowdy after Vice President Shettima was not mentioned, triggering protests and regional discontent.
Why it Matters:
Regional sentiments still shape Nigerian politics, and perceived disrespect can upend alliances. The Shettima snub highlights fears of northern marginalisation within Tinubu’s circle. If unresolved, such tensions could fragment the APC’s northern base and complicate efforts to maintain a national ruling coalition.
6. Anti-Tinubu Coalition Pushes for New Party Registration
A coalition led by El-Rufai, Atiku, and Amaechi applied to INEC to register a new political party, the All Democratic Alliance (ADA), promising grassroots representation and ideological clarity.
Why it Matters:
The formation of ADA reflects public fatigue with both APC and PDP, Nigeria’s two dominant parties. If registered, the ADA could capitalise on widespread voter frustration and low turnout trends. However, the coalition must prove it isn’t just another elite pact in disguise. Nigeria’s history is littered with failed third-party experiments, ADA will need more than fresh branding to disrupt the status quo.
Conclusion:
This week offered a glimpse into Nigeria’s political future, fractured, uncertain, and inching toward realignment. The APC is losing legitimacy from within, the opposition is starting from scratch, and citizens remain stuck between broken promises and rising insecurity.
From the ravaged farms of Benue and Plateau to the quiet rooms of political deals, Nigeria’s crisis is no longer occasional, it’s structural. Alliances are crumbling, trust in institutions is fading, and for many, security no longer exists.
The political class is reshaping itself ahead of 2027, but few inspire public trust. For most Nigerians, hope feels distant. The real question isn’t just who wins, it’s whether anyone can finally deliver the justice, safety, and honesty the people deserve.