Dangote Petroleum Refinery has warned that changes to Nigeria’s fuel pricing, subsidy and import policies could squeeze its refining margins and complicate financial planning.
The warning is contained in the prospectus for its proposed Initial Public Offering (IPO), scheduled for September 14 to October 13, 2026.
The offer comprises 4.1 billion shares at ₦525 each and is expected to raise about ₦2.15 trillion.
Dangote said its earnings depend significantly on prices for refined petroleum products, making its operations vulnerable to government decisions affecting the downstream market.
It warned that renewed subsidies or price controls could compress margins, while sudden policy reversals could disrupt demand and make revenue projections less predictable.
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Changes to import duties and other regulations could also affect competition between locally refined products and imported fuel, the company said.
The warning comes after major shifts in Nigeria’s downstream policy. President Bola Tinubu announced the removal of the petrol subsidy on May 29, 2023. The Dangote prospectus states that a petrol price cap was partially restored in February 2024 before being removed again in October.
That October, NNPC Limited also ended its position as the exclusive buyer of petrol from Dangote Refinery, allowing other marketers to purchase directly from the facility.
Dangote said future changes to fuel pricing, subsidies or import rules could be driven by economic, political or social pressures and may materially affect its domestic sales margins, financial position and operating performance.
The disclosure comes as the refinery pursues an expansion that would raise its capacity from about 700,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2029.
The refinery reported an after-tax profit of $1.82 billion in the first half of 2026, compared with a $476 million loss for the full year in 2025.