Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 14.63 per cent in September 2026 from 15.39 per cent in August, as falling food prices helped slow the overall rise in consumer prices despite a sharp increase in energy costs.
The latest Consumer Price Index report published on Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that inflation declined by 0.76 percentage points, marking its lowest year-on-year rate in 2026.
The report, however, highlighted diverging trends across major price categories, with monthly energy inflation surging and core inflation remaining a concern despite the broader slowdown.
The NBS stated, “In September 2026, the Headline inflation rate stood at 14.63 per cent, down from 15.39 per cent in August 2026 and stood at 20.98 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (September 2025).”
Compared with September 2025, when headline inflation reached 20.98 per cent, the latest figure represented a decline of 6.35 percentage points.
Monthly inflation also slowed considerably, dropping to 0.06 per cent in September from 0.71 per cent in the preceding month, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points.
Despite the slower pace of price increases, the Consumer Price Index rose slightly from 146.30 points in August to 146.38 points in September.
Explaining the development, the bureau stated, “This means that in September 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in August 2026.”
Energy prices recorded one of the most significant increases during the period, with monthly energy inflation climbing to 5.38 per cent in September from 0.36 per cent in August. The movement represented an increase of 5.02 percentage points.
On an annual basis, energy inflation stood at 10.85 per cent, reflecting the continuing cost pressures associated with energy consumption for households and businesses.
Food inflation, meanwhile, moderated to 19.59 per cent year-on-year in September, compared with 20.16 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.
Food prices also declined by 1.55 per cent month-on-month, reversing the 1.02 per cent increase recorded in August.
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Imported food inflation was 9.18 per cent year-on-year, while its monthly rate slowed to 0.04 per cent in September from 0.91 per cent in August.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 12.95 per cent year-on-year, compared with 22.11 per cent in September 2025.
A state-by-state breakdown showed that Imo recorded the highest annual headline inflation rate at 30.04 per cent, followed by Enugu at 22.38 per cent and Niger at 22.05 per cent.
Taraba had the lowest rate at 1.78 per cent, while Bauchi and Adamawa followed with 2.84 per cent and 3.66 per cent, respectively.
For food inflation, Lagos topped the list with 34.40 per cent, followed by Imo at 33.79 per cent and Ondo at 31.49 per cent.
In contrast, Taraba and Yobe recorded food deflation of 7.47 per cent and 0.37 per cent, respectively, while Borno posted a food inflation rate of 2.18 per cent.
The NBS identified food and non-alcoholic beverages as the biggest contributors to annual headline inflation, accounting for 5.85 percentage points.
Reacting to the figures, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, welcomed the decline in headline inflation but cautioned that rising energy expenses and persistent food price pressures could weaken the progress.
In a policy brief issued on Thursday, Yusuf argued that the moderation in inflation provided grounds for further monetary easing to lower borrowing costs and encourage private-sector investment.
He said, “With inflation moderating, the case for further monetary easing has strengthened, particularly given the elevated cost of credit and its adverse consequences for investment, working capital and productive capacity.”
However, Yusuf drew attention to the sharp increase in monthly energy inflation, which rose from 0.36 per cent in August to 5.38 per cent in September.
He warned that higher petrol, diesel and gas prices could increase production and transportation expenses, with potential consequences for food prices.
“The sharp monthly energy-price increase also raises the risk that the recent disinflationary gains could be reversed if higher energy costs persist,” Yusuf warned.