The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has held firm on its global oil demand growth projections for both 2025 and 2026, maintaining a forecast of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) for each year.
The decision was revealed in OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report released on Monday, which indicated that there would be no revision to the previous month’s estimates despite minor adjustments to actual figures for the first quarter of 2025.
According to the report, demand in member countries of the OECD is expected to rise by 0.2 million bpd in 2025, while countries outside the OECD are projected to account for over 1.1 million bpd of the growth.
The same trend is expected to persist into 2026, with non-OECD nations driving demand.
“Global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at 1.3 mb/d year-on-year, unchanged from last month’s assessment,” the report stated. “In 2026, growth is forecast to continue at the same rate, with OECD demand rising by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD by 1.2 mb/d.”
OPEC also left its global economic growth forecast unchanged, projecting a 2.9% expansion in 2025 and a slight uptick to 3.1% in 2026.
The report cited sustained economic activity in early 2025 and advancements in U.S. trade negotiations as reasons for the stability.
Key national forecasts include:
United States: 1.7% growth in 2025, rising to 2.1% in 2026
China: Holding steady at 4.6% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026
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India: Upgraded to 6.5% in 2025, matching the projection for 2026
Eurozone and Japan: Both regions forecast to grow modestly at or near 1%
Brazil: Projected to expand by 2.3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026
Russia: 2025 forecast revised slightly downward to 1.8%, with 2026 holding at 1.5%
Despite a drop in output, Nigeria maintained its position as Africa’s top crude oil producer in May, according to the report. OPEC did not elaborate on the production figures, but the update reinforces Nigeria’s continued relevance within the oil bloc.
The report reflects OPEC’s confidence in long-term energy demand, particularly from emerging economies, even amid the global shift toward renewable energy and decarbonization efforts.