The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, has said Nigeria could record gross domestic product (GDP) growth of between 4 and 4.5 per cent in 2026 if economic reforms are sustained, budget assumptions are made more realistic and structural constraints to productivity are addressed.
Yusuf, an economist and former Director General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, stated this on Tuesday during an interview on ARISE NEWS. He said that while key macroeconomic indicators are beginning to stabilise, several downside risks could undermine growth projections if not properly managed.
He identified oil price volatility, geopolitical tensions, security challenges and controversies surrounding tax reforms as major risks, stressing the need for caution in fiscal planning. According to him, overly optimistic revenue projections, particularly in relation to crude oil prices and output levels, have historically weakened budget implementation and credibility.
Yusuf urged the National Assembly to reassess budget assumptions for the coming fiscal year, advising that revenue projections should be made more conservative to enhance planning and improve budget performance.
He also referenced geopolitical developments, including tensions involving Venezuela, noting that although such issues could influence global oil markets, their immediate impact may be limited. He explained that Venezuela’s low output, weak investment and the effect of sanctions mean current developments may not materially affect oil supply in the short term.
On tax reforms, Yusuf said recent controversies appear to be easing but warned that implementation must be handled carefully to avoid unsettling the economy. He stressed that while existing laws must be obeyed, their execution should be pragmatic to prevent further economic anxiety.
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Addressing concerns over jobless growth, Yusuf noted that strong GDP growth does not automatically translate into improved welfare, adding that job creation depends largely on investment and productivity. He said macroeconomic stability must be complemented by reforms that enhance competitiveness and improve the quality of the investment environment.
He pointed to persistent structural challenges such as poor power supply, regulatory bottlenecks and institutional inefficiencies, warning that these factors discourage both existing and potential investors.
Yusuf identified agriculture, construction, trade, information and communications technology (ICT), entertainment and tourism as sectors with high job-creation potential. He said growth in these areas could drive inclusive economic expansion if supported by appropriate fiscal, monetary and trade policies.
He also called for deeper regulatory and public sector reforms, noting that a transactional approach by some regulatory agencies continues to frustrate private sector operators. According to him, economic transformation will ultimately depend on creating an environment that allows private enterprise to thrive, as the private sector remains the primary driver of job creation.