U.S. President Donald Trump is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday, marking their first in-person encounter since 2019. The long-anticipated meeting comes as both leaders navigate renewed tensions over trade, Taiwan, and global influence.
Trump, who often highlights his negotiating prowess and affinity for strong leaders, has spoken admiringly of Xi despite his otherwise tough rhetoric on China. During a Fox News appearance on the campaign trail, Trump called Xi a “brilliant guy,” praising his leadership style and describing him as someone who “runs 1.4 billion people with an iron fist.”
Despite these remarks, the meeting is expected to test both leaders’ ability to balance their political and economic priorities. Trump has repeatedly linked his personal relationship with Xi to his confidence that China would refrain from military action against Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its territory.
Trade remains at the forefront of Trump’s agenda. Both sides have signaled progress toward a potential deal following recent talks in Kuala Lumpur, as Trump oscillates between threatening and easing tariffs on Chinese goods.
However, some analysts warn that expectations for a breakthrough should remain tempered. Ryan Hass, former China adviser to President Barack Obama, noted a growing divide between Trump’s pursuit of a high-profile deal and the U.S. government’s broader strategy to counter Beijing’s global ambitions.
“China is interested in centering itself and pushing the United States to the periphery, not in unlocking some grand-bargain economic deal,” Hass said, suggesting that Beijing may seek only a short-term arrangement to buy time.
Trump’s earlier 2019 “phase one” trade deal with China — hailed as a historic accord worth $200 billion in new U.S. exports — collapsed in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. By the end of his term, Trump’s rhetoric toward Beijing had hardened as he blamed China for the virus outbreak.
President Joe Biden, who succeeded Trump, maintained economic pressure on Beijing while imposing additional restrictions on technology exports but also sought limited cooperation on specific global issues.
According to Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, China may view Trump’s transactional approach as an opportunity rather than a threat.
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“The Chinese have an issue with his style, but they see Trump as someone they can work with,” Sun explained. “There’s recognition in China that Trump has been more willing to make concessions than the Biden administration ever was.”
Diplomatic observers expect Taiwan to be among the most sensitive topics during Thursday’s talks. Henrietta Levin, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said uncertainty surrounds how Trump might respond to Xi’s expected demands on the issue.
“Trump is comfortable connecting strategic issues to tactical economic questions,” Levin noted. “That makes his approach less predictable than that of past presidents.”
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a long-time supporter of Taiwan, reaffirmed that the United States would not trade away its commitment to the island in pursuit of an economic deal with China.
As Trump and Xi prepare to meet, the world will be watching closely to see whether their personal rapport can translate into meaningful diplomatic progress — or whether long-standing tensions will once again define U.S.-China relations.