A significant number of Nigerian voters have yet to decide which presidential candidate they will support in the 2027 election, despite a high stated willingness to participate, a new survey by Yiaga Africa has found.
The national voting intentions survey, released on Wednesday, October 7, showed that 84 per cent of Nigerians said they were likely to vote, but only 41 per cent were certain about voting and had already selected a preferred candidate.
Yiaga Africa said the survey involved 2,470 respondents drawn from the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
The organisation reported that 96 per cent of adult citizens surveyed were registered voters, while about 44 per cent of eligible voters had not yet made up their minds about their preferred presidential candidate.
The North-Central recorded the highest level of voting intention at 57 per cent, followed by the South-West with 54 per cent and the North-East with 52 per cent. The South-South recorded 33 per cent.
Although presidential campaigns began in August, the survey suggested that the contest had yet to generate significant momentum among a large section of the electorate.
President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, who is seeking another term, is being challenged by Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress and Peter Obi, the flagbearer of the Nigeria Democratic Congress.
Tinubu, Atiku and Obi were also the leading contenders in the 2023 presidential election.
The survey found that 54 per cent of respondents disapproved of Tinubu’s performance in office.
Yiaga said the desire for political change was the strongest motivation among voters.
“A desire for change in leadership (49%) is by far the leading motivation, ahead of civic duty (20%), support for a specific candidate (16%) and party loyalty (11%),” the Yiaga survey found.
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The survey identified the economy and employment, insecurity, corruption and governance among the major issues expected to influence voters’ decisions in 2027.
It also found that social media was the most influential source of information shaping voting choices, with 58 per cent of respondents citing it.
Television followed at 46 per cent, radio at 45 per cent and online news platforms at 29 per cent.
Despite the reported willingness to vote, confidence in the electoral process remained low.
Only 34 per cent of respondents said they were confident that the Independent National Electoral Commission would deliver credible elections.
Safiya Bichi, head, knowledge management and learning at Yiaga, said the survey showed that Nigerians remained interested in participating in elections despite concerns surrounding the electoral process.
“What stands between that willingness and the ballot box is fear, distrust and money,” Bichi said in a statement.
The survey comes amid growing political activity ahead of the 2027 election, with parties and opposition groups working to consolidate support while voters assess the performance of the current administration and the alternatives being offered.
In an editorial published on October 1, The Economist argued that Tinubu could still secure re-election despite widespread public dissatisfaction.
The publication pointed to Nigeria’s worsening security situation, the hardship associated with the government’s economic reforms and the presence of strong political challengers as factors that could undermine Tinubu’s bid.
However, it said the president could benefit from what it described as Nigeria’s “complicated electoral dynamics”.