This column originally appeared in Vanguard.
On this page, last Friday, I challenged those who are sure that Tinubu will win the next election and said that politics is so volatile that nobody can predict the outcome of the 2027 polls this far in advance.
A wise reader called Afolabi Oni (folabioni@yahoo.com) had this to say:
Dear Donu Kogbara
Your write up “A Year Is A Long Time in Politics!” offers an interesting reflection on Nigeria’s shifting political climate. Yet, beyond the manoeuvres of politicians, there is a deeper issue we must confront: the troubling docility and gullibility of the Nigerian electorate.
The trajectory of President Bola Tinubu illustrates this clearly. Despite publicly chastising former President Muhammadu Buhari while the latter was still in office, Tinubu faced no real political backlash.
He then contested the presidential election—and won. Even with longstanding controversies surrounding his record, he continues to attract significant support across religious and tribal lines and also across social classes, including the elites and the masses.
This is not an isolated case. All over the country, individuals who would struggle to meet basic standards in more disciplined societies routinely contest—and comfortably win—public office.
This reality reflects less on the calibre of the politicians and more on the credibility gaps in our followership culture. The 2023 general election, however briefly, disrupted this pattern.
Peter Obi’s unexpected performance was driven not by traditional political structures but by millions of Nigerians who are usually politically disengaged. Their sudden participation altered the tone and trajectory of the election season.
If Nigeria is truly serious about securing better leadership and greater accountability, this same group of motivated citizens—commonly referred to as the “Obidients”—must remain engaged.
Their participation will matter most not in just one election cycle, but over the next two or three. Sustained involvement is the only way to shift our political outcomes. If this bloc slips back into apathy, the entrenched political establishment will once again operate without meaningful challenge. There is thus a need to create a forum for continuous conversation to nurture the movement.
It is equally important to clarify that “Obidients” should not be narrowly interpreted as followers of Peter Obi alone. The label increasingly reflects Nigerians committed to transparency, reform, and national progress, irrespective of which political alliances emerge in the future, eg Obi teaming up with Atiku or El Rufai.
What the country needs is not the elevation of any single individual, but the consistent support of leaders who embody these values.
As long as voters remain passive, uncritical, or easily swayed, Nigeria will continue to recycle the same political actors. Real change will come not only from those who hold office, but from citizens who insist—through their votes—on something better.
Friendships Lost, On Hold And At Risk
A lot of Muslim/Christian friendships have been adversely affected by the recent furore about killings in Northern Nigeria.
Some of my Muslim friends – Fulanis especially – feel that their ethnic group and religion are being unjustly demonized by black/white Christians in general and President Donald Trump in particular.
Some have even accused ME of “unfairly” emphasizing Christian deaths at a time when Muslims are also being targeted by jihadis and bandits.
Other Muslim friends of mine have chosen to maintain diplomatic silences and say nothing publicly about the elephant in the room when we are together. Then there are those who are simply avoiding me.
I actually think that the angry and confrontational Muslim friends have the healthiest attitude because they are honestly airing their grievances, compelling me to hear their side of the story and insisting on communicating about the most important issue in today’s Nigeria.
Having said this, some of these blunt interactions have ended so badly that I’ve lost a couple of friendships that may never be regained.
Many of the Christians around me are having similar experiences with their Muslim friends…some of whom are now former friends.
I wonder whether any of these shattered relationships can eventually be repaired when the atmosphere in the country becomes less febrile. I even wonder whether the atmosphere will become less febrile in my lifetime because this does seem to be a massive tipping point.
Will essentially decent Nigerian Christians and Muslims get over this corrosive tension, elevate the good things they have in common over the bad things that divide them and move forward jointly to build a less toxic nation in which no group feels oppressed or misunderstood?
Or can the numerous silent and noisy rifts never be healed? In other words, is this the beginning of the end of the Nigerian Unity ideal?
READ ALSO: LAMENTABLE PERFORMANCES
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