The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has trimmed its economic growth projection for Nigeria in 2025 to 3.0%, citing falling global crude oil prices.
The revised outlook was detailed in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook report, released during its Spring Meetings with the World Bank in Washington, DC.
The latest forecast marks a 0.2 percentage point drop from the previous estimate of 3.2%.
“For sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to decline slightly from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025, before recovering modestly to 4.2% in 2026,” the IMF stated.
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The report added: “Among the larger economies, the growth forecast for Nigeria is revised downward by 0.2 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, owing to lower oil prices.”
South Africa and South Sudan also saw sharp downward revisions.
For South Africa, the IMF noted: “The growth forecast is revised downward by 0.5 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, reflecting slowing momentum from a weaker-than-expected 2024 performance, deteriorating sentiment due to heightened uncertainty, intensification of protectionist policies, and a deeper slowdown in major economies.”
South Sudan’s growth forecast was slashed significantly. “South Sudan has a downward revision of 31.5 percentage points for 2025 due to delays in resuming oil production following damage to a key pipeline,” the IMF reported.