IMF, President Tinubu, And Nigeria’s Transparency Test

If the late Chief Gani Fawehinmi were alive today, one can imagine him questioning whether terms such as “fiscal opacity” and “off-budget spending” merely soften what many Nigerians see as a deeper crisis in public accountability. Throughout his life, Gani challenged governments that failed to account for public resources. It is difficult to imagine him remaining silent amid renewed concerns over transparency in Nigeria’s public finances.

Recent observations by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have once again brought these concerns into sharp focus. During the presentation of the IMF’s 2026 Article IV Consultation, the Fund noted that public spending equivalent to about two per cent of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product was executed outside the regular budget framework through complex financing arrangements.

Although the IMF employed the measured language expected of an international financial institution, the implications are far from technical. Budget transparency is not simply an accounting principle; it is the foundation of democratic accountability. Every naira spent outside clear public scrutiny weakens citizens’ confidence in government and makes effective oversight more difficult.

Two per cent of GDP may appear modest on paper, but in a country struggling with inadequate healthcare, underfunded education, unreliable electricity and deteriorating infrastructure, it represents resources that could significantly improve millions of lives.

Rather than dismissing these concerns as routine technical observations, the Federal Government should seize the opportunity to demonstrate its commitment to openness by providing comprehensive explanations for all off-budget expenditures and strengthening public access to fiscal information.

The transparency debate extends beyond the IMF’s observations.

The Senate Committee on Public Accounts recently questioned accounting discrepancies estimated at about ₦210 trillion in the books of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) covering several years. While these figures remain subject to investigation and clarification, their sheer magnitude underscores the urgent need for greater financial transparency within Nigeria’s most strategic public enterprise.

The Senate’s ongoing inquiry is welcome. However, Nigerians expect investigations to produce more than headlines. Effective oversight must culminate in credible findings, accountability where necessary, and institutional reforms capable of preventing future irregularities.

Equally troubling are recurring allegations regarding the quality of legislative oversight itself. Reports suggesting that some oversight activities have become vulnerable to undue influence weaken public confidence in one of democracy’s most important accountability mechanisms. If oversight institutions themselves lose credibility, public trust inevitably suffers.

Questions surrounding the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway project have similarly fuelled public debate. Critics have questioned the procurement process and project costs, while the Federal Government has defended its approach as being consistent with existing legal provisions and national development priorities. Regardless of where one stands, projects of such enormous financial significance demand the highest possible level of transparency. Competitive procurement, clear cost disclosures and regular public reporting are not merely legal obligations; they are essential safeguards against abuse.

Nigeria is not lacking in laws.

The Fiscal Responsibility Act and the Public Procurement Act provide comprehensive frameworks for prudent public financial management. The challenge lies in consistent implementation. Laws inspire confidence only when they are applied fairly and without exception.

Independent assessments reinforce these concerns. The International Budget Partnership’s Open Budget Survey has shown fluctuations in Nigeria’s transparency performance in recent years, suggesting that progress remains fragile. Public participation in budget processes also remains relatively weak, limiting citizens’ ability to scrutinise how public resources are allocated and spent.

Supporters of President Bola Tinubu rightly argue that difficult reforms, including fuel subsidy removal and exchange-rate liberalisation, were necessary to stabilise Nigeria’s economy after years of structural distortions. Those reforms have earned commendation from several international institutions.

Yet economic reforms alone cannot substitute for transparent governance.

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Citizens who are asked to bear the burden of higher fuel prices, inflation and increased living costs equally deserve confidence that public resources are being managed efficiently and openly. Fiscal discipline must apply not only to ordinary Nigerians but also to government institutions.

Transparency is not an optional complement to reform; it is the condition that gives reform legitimacy.

Nigeria’s democratic institutions will ultimately be judged not by the number of investigations announced or committees inaugurated, but by their willingness to enforce accountability consistently, regardless of political affiliation or institutional status.

History demonstrates that sustainable accountability rarely emerges from government alone. It is strengthened through vigilant civil society, an independent press, responsible opposition, professional public institutions and an informed citizenry willing to demand better governance.

The IMF’s observations should therefore be viewed not as an embarrassment, but as an opportunity.

If the Tinubu administration is confident that its reforms are placing Nigeria on a stronger economic foundation, then it should have every incentive to make public finance more transparent than ever before. Greater disclosure, stronger oversight and stricter compliance with existing fiscal laws would reinforce both investor confidence and public trust.

Nigeria’s greatest challenge today is not merely balancing budgets. It is convincing citizens that every public naira is managed in the public interest.

That is the transparency test before President Tinubu, and one that every democratic government must ultimately pass.

Moshood Oshunfurewa writes from Lagos.

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