The International Monetary Fund has raised concerns over the potential economic fallout from the ongoing conflict involving Iran, warning that prolonged instability could drive up global inflation and slow economic growth.
Speaking at a press briefing on Thursday, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said the institution is closely monitoring the situation, particularly the impact of rising energy prices on the global economy.
“If prolonged, higher energy prices will lead to higher headline inflation,” Kozack stated, noting that sustained increases in oil prices could have significant ripple effects across markets.
According to the IMF, if crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel for an extended period—up to a year or more—global inflation could rise by as much as two percentage points.
At the same time, global economic output could decline by approximately one percent, based on standard economic projections.
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Despite the growing uncertainty, Kozack confirmed that no country has yet approached the IMF for emergency financial assistance linked to the conflict involving Iran.
The warning comes amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, where disruptions to energy supply chains—particularly oil exports—are already contributing to volatility in global markets.
Economists say the situation underscores the fragile balance of the global economy, where geopolitical shocks can quickly translate into higher living costs, especially for developing nations heavily reliant on energy imports.
The IMF’s assessment adds to mounting international concern that a prolonged conflict could deepen inflationary pressures, complicate monetary policies, and slow down recovery efforts in several economies worldwide.