Qatar’s energy minister, Saad Al-Kaabi, has warned that crude oil prices could skyrocket to $150 per barrel within weeks if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted.
Al-Kaabi made the remarks on Friday, March 6, during an interview with the Financial Times, painting a grim picture of what prolonged disruptions to one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes could mean for global energy markets.
The warning comes after major container shipping companies halted operations through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal on March 2, citing growing security threats following US and Israeli military strikes on Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow stretch of water between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, serves as the sole maritime exit for oil and gas produced in the Gulf region, making it arguably the most strategically vital waterway on the planet.
Al-Kaabi told the Financial Times that energy markets face serious trouble if the passage stays blocked, projecting that crude prices “could reach $150 a barrel within two to three weeks if tankers and other vessels remain unable to pass through the strategic waterway”.
Beyond oil, the minister warned that natural gas prices could surge to $40 per metric million British thermal units, roughly four times higher than pre-war levels, if supply disruptions drag on.
He also raised the prospect of Gulf energy producers being forced to formally suspend delivery obligations, a legal step known as force majeure.
“Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days that this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure,” Al-Kaabi said.
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“If they don’t, they are at some point going to pay the liability for that legally, and that’s their choice.”
Qatar’s state energy company, QatarEnergy, announced on March 2 that it had stopped producing liquefied natural gas after Iranian military strikes damaged its operating facilities.
Speaking about the shutdown, Al-Kaabi said officials are still trying to determine how badly the facilities were hit.
“We don’t yet know the extent of the damage, as it is currently still being assessed. It is not clear yet how long it will take to repair,” he said.
Even in the best-case scenario where fighting stops immediately, the minister said it would take “weeks to months” for Qatar to get its export operations back to normal because of the scale of logistical disruption.
Qatar is not alone in dealing with direct attacks on energy infrastructure. Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant, was forced to shut down its Ras Tanura oil refinery after debris from an Iranian drone strike caused a fire at the facility.
The ripple effects of the global supply crunch are already being felt in Nigeria.
On March 5, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited raised petrol prices at its retail stations to N933 per litre in Lagos and N960 per litre in Abuja.
The increase followed a decision by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery to raise its ex-gantry petrol price from N774 per litre to N874 per litre.