Tech billionaire Elon Musk has claimed that mortality rates across Africa declined after the United States drastically reduced foreign aid, arguing that ending certain aid programmes removed a driver of instability on the continent.
Musk made the assertion on Tuesday while responding to criticism of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), whose cost-cutting measures he has backed.
The initiatives resulted in significant reductions in funding for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
According to Refugees International, U.S. humanitarian assistance dropped from $14 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025.
The organisation described the shutdown of USAID as the “most prominent manifestation” of a broader decline in global humanitarian support.
The Center for Global Development also reported that USAID’s expenditure fell by about 58 per cent in 2025 compared with the previous year.
Despite Musk’s position, public health experts and humanitarian organisations have warned that the funding cuts could trigger devastating consequences.
A study published in The Lancet in July 2025 estimated that the reductions could contribute to more than 14 million deaths worldwide by 2030, including over 4.5 million children.
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In addition, New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof, citing projections from the Center for Global Development, wrote last year that more than 1.6 million people could die within a year if U.S. funding for HIV prevention and treatment is not restored.
Reacting in a post on X, Musk shared 2025 mortality figures from several African countries, arguing that the data showed no measurable increase in deaths following the aid reductions.
“Deaths in Africa DECREASED after USAID funding was cut, because they’re no longer able to push for violent revolution to install leftist regimes!” he wrote, quoting an analysis that highlighted South African all-cause death statistics.
The analysis included a chart tracking weekly deaths in South Africa between January 2023 and May 2026, identifying the period following the USAID/PEPFAR funding cuts.
According to the data, observed excess deaths remained close to zero and were lower than projections made before the funding reductions.
The accompanying analysis also referenced research questioning the overall impact of foreign aid on public health, including a 2019 study that found little statistical evidence linking aid spending with improvements in life expectancy or lower mortality rates in developing countries.
Musk has consistently defended the aid cuts, maintaining that they are necessary to curb waste, corruption and the misuse of taxpayer funds for political objectives instead of humanitarian purposes.
He further argued that previous USAID activities in parts of Africa encouraged violent revolutions aimed at installing leftist governments and that ending such funding helped remove a source of conflict.