Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027, outperforming the global economy despite mounting geopolitical and inflationary pressures, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.
The forecast is contained in the July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, released on Wednesday, July 8, which expects global growth to slow from 3.5 per cent in 2025 to 3.0 per cent in 2026 before edging up to 3.4 per cent in 2027.
The IMF attributed Nigeria’s improved outlook to stronger macroeconomic stability and favorable trade conditions following recent economic reforms. It, however, warned that persistently high prices of food and other essential goods could worsen poverty and food insecurity.
According to the report, the global economy is being shaped by the twin effects of the Middle East conflict and rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI).
It noted that energy-exporting countries and economies integrated into the AI value chain are expected to post stronger growth, while energy-importing countries with limited technology capacity may face weaker economic performance.
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The Fund also projected global inflation to rise from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 4.7 per cent in 2026, before easing to 3.9 per cent in 2027, signaling that progress in reducing price pressures has slowed.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, growth is forecast at 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.5 per cent in 2027, although performance will vary across countries depending on reforms and exposure to external shocks.
Advanced economies are expected to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2026 and 1.8 per cent in 2027, while emerging and developing economies are projected to expand by 3.8 per cent before accelerating to 4.5 per cent a year later.
The IMF warned that escalating tensions in the Middle East, volatile commodity prices, trade fragmentation and weaker fiscal positions remain key risks to the global outlook.
It added that stronger investment in AI, improved energy market stability, lower trade barriers and sustained structural reforms could support stronger medium-term growth, urging governments to maintain sound monetary and fiscal policies while accelerating reforms to strengthen long-term economic resilience.