Former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has said President Bola Tinubu will struggle in the 2027 presidential election and may finish no higher than third.
Speaking during an interview on Sunday, August 31, on Channels Television’s Sunday Politics, El-Rufai said the ruling party should not assume victory, warning that the outcome could mirror 2015 when an incumbent president was unseated.
“I was governor of Kaduna state; I was one of Bola Tinubu’s biggest campaigners, but I couldn’t deliver the state to him,” El-Rufai stated.
“Bola Tinubu himself couldn’t win his state with his own governor in place. So, these things are not as theoretical as people want them to be.
“If you want to engage in self-delusion, you are free to do so. I will not tell you how we are going to win, but I tell you very clearly — the worst-case scenario in the 2027 elections is that no winner will emerge in the first round.
“We may have to go for a runoff, and Bola Tinubu will not be on the ballot for the runoff, because he will, at best, be third in the election.
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“He has no pathway to win. I have done the maths, I have done the analysis; he cannot — he will, at best, be third.”
El-Rufai further cautioned Tinubu against overconfidence, stressing that state power and money are no guarantees of electoral success.
“But he can deceive himself; he may think, oh, you know, I have money, because they have taken all the money in the country, I have INEC, I have the police, I have the army.
“You know what, President Tinubu, invite ex-President Goodluck Jonathan for a chat, and ask him if he didn’t have all this in 2015, and we got him out. Is the case still the same? Similar to 2015? It’s worse.”
“It’s like those who say Tinubu has never lost an election. That can be contested, but it’s okay. He’s a political strategist, he’s this, he’s that. Wait.
“I naturally have said, if you want to learn some lessons, invite ex-President Goodluck Jonathan for a chat over coffee, and ask him what happened in 2015. That’s all,” he added.